![]() ![]() “I would say it’s amazingly good what weather forecasts can do.” “Nonetheless, you know, it’s not the real atmosphere, it’s not perfect,” Nolan said. The computers do billions of calculations just to get our normal weather forecast. There are billions of these images across the planet, Nolan said, and the models march forward in time for weeks. ![]() However, satellites and commercial planes, which also collect data, can help to fill these gaps, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections. ![]() There are sizable areas where scientists can’t collect data, like in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, where there are no weather stations or weather balloons. So the forecast for five days from now will be less accurate than the one for two days from now. And those errors swell the further out the forecast goes. “So all of them step forward in time, basically using information based on themselves,” Nolan said. “The Earth’s atmosphere is broken up into little squares, and then every square basically says to itself: Alright, I know my temperature and my pressure and my wind speed and wind direction, and whether or not it’s raining, and so on,” Nolan said.īased on that square, and what’s happening in the squares next to it, the models predict how that’s going to change in the next minute. Think of it like pixels in a photo: The more pixels, the better the quality of the image. The more snapshots, the better understanding forecasters have of the atmosphere and the better these models will perform. The models split the atmosphere into a grid, then take a snapshot of a piece of the atmosphere. Super computers run these models, calculating complex formulas to understand what’s going on with the Earth’s atmosphere, said David Nolan, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami.īut come hurricane season, these models can be just as useful telling us where that Category 4 monster is likely to land. Government agencies use them every day to forecast the mundane: Will it be nice this weekend? Will I need an umbrella when I head to work Monday morning? When will a cold front finally break our oven-like summer? Very few models are used only for hurricanes. Like neighbors helping one another prepare for a storm or digging out afterward, they work best when they work together. And Floridians shouldn’t pick a single favorite. But what exactly are these models and where did they come from? And how can they be so different from one another? And is there one we can trust more than the others?įact is, none of the models are perfect. ![]()
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